What the Oʻahu market is actually doing
Updated for August 2026, the most recent month the Honolulu Board of REALTORS® has closed. Every number on this page carries its source. If a figure is too thin to trust, I say so instead of publishing it.
Two markets, moving in opposite directions
This is the single most important thing to understand about Oʻahu right now. Houses are tight and appreciating. Condos are soft and oversupplied. Advice that does not distinguish between them is not advice.
| August 2026 | Single-family | Condo |
|---|---|---|
| Median sales price | $1,240,000 | $510,000 |
| Change vs. August 2025 | ▲ 12.2% | ▼ 1.0% |
| Closed sales | 264 (+1.9%) | 365 (−6.6%) |
| Median days on market | 17 (was 22) | 37 (was 48) |
| Months of remaining inventory | 3.2 | 6.9 |
| Median % of original list received | 100.0% | 97.1% |
| Active inventory | 794 | 2,512 |
| New listings | 364 (+14.5%) | 684 (+6.4%) |
Source: Honolulu Board of REALTORS®, August 2026 market report, and the Monthly Statistical Report. Six months of supply is the conventional line between a seller’s and a buyer’s market.
Year to date, January through August
| YTD 2026 vs. YTD 2025 | Single-family | Condo |
|---|---|---|
| Median sales price, 2026 | $1,190,000 | $512,000 |
| Median sales price, 2025 | $1,140,000 | $505,000 |
| Change | +4.4% | +1.4% |
| Closed sales | 1,950 (+5.9%) | 2,834 (−1.6%) |
| Median days on market | 17 (was 22) | 42 (was 44) |
| Rolling 12-month closed sales | +9.0% | +1.0% |
Source: HBR Oʻahu Monthly Statistical Report, August 2026. For context, full-year 2025 finished at a $1,139,000 single-family median and $507,250 for condos (HBR historical data).
Rates, and one thing that is genuinely different here
| As of late September 2026 | Rate |
|---|---|
| 30-year fixed, national average | 7.03% |
| 15-year fixed, national average | 6.42% |
| 2026 conforming limit, Honolulu County | $1,249,125 |
| Mainland baseline conforming limit | $832,750 |
Sources: Freddie Mac PMMS, week of September 24, 2026; FHFA 2026 conforming loan limits.
The Federal Reserve raised rates in September 2026, the first increase since 2023, and thirty-year money moved back above 7%. Nobody knows where it goes from here, so I do not pretend to.
Here is the Hawaiʻi-specific part that matters and that a mainland lender may not flag for you. Because Honolulu County carries a high-cost designation, the 2026 one-unit conforming limit is $1,249,125, half again above the mainland baseline. A large share of Oʻahu single-family purchases stay conventional that would be jumbo anywhere else, which means easier underwriting and better pricing than you might be bracing for.
One caution. You will see advertised Hawaiʻi rates that look better than the national number. Those are usually quoted on a $200,000 loan with 20% down and one to two discount points. That is not your loan. Always compare on your actual numbers.
Honolulu property tax, and the exemption people keep missing
| FY 2026–27 rate per $1,000 assessed | Rate |
|---|---|
| Residential (owner-occupant with home exemption) | $3.50 |
| Residential A, tier 1 (first $1M, no exemption) | $4.00 |
| Residential A, tier 2 (above $1M, no exemption) | $11.40 |
| Bed & breakfast home | $6.50 |
| Transient vacation, tier 1 / tier 2 | $9.00 / $11.50 |
| Hotel & resort | $13.90 |
City & County of Honolulu Real Property Assessment Division. Residential A applies to residential property assessed at $1,000,000 or more with no home exemption on file, so a second home or an investment property. October 1 is the valuation date and assessment notices go out December 15.
The homeowner exemption
This is free money and people miss it every year.
| Now | From Jul 1, 2027 | |
|---|---|---|
| Under age 65 | $120,000 | $140,000 |
| Age 65 and older | $160,000 | $180,000 |
The exemption comes off your assessed value before the rate applies, and having one on file is also what keeps a $1M+ home out of Residential A. If you own and occupy your home on Oʻahu and have never filed, do it. The deadline to claim it for the coming tax year is September 30.
File with RPADWhy condo prices are soft: it is the insurance
If you want one explanation for why houses are up 12% and condos are down, this is it. Association master policy premiums on Oʻahu rose 300% to 600% in a single year for many buildings. One Waikīkī association went from $235,000 to over $1.2 million.
The premium itself is painful. The financing consequence is worse. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac require 100% replacement-cost coverage, and many Hawaiʻi master policies carry only 20% to 30% of hurricane exposure. A building in that position becomes unwarrantable, conventional and VA financing dries up, and the buyer pool collapses to cash. Roughly 70% of primary-lender mortgages get sold to the GSEs, so this is not a niche problem.
The state is working on it. SB 1044, enacted July 2025, is a five-year emergency measure that lets the Hawaiʻi Property Insurance Association write condo property insurance statewide, lets the Hurricane Relief Fund cover high-rises for the first time, and stands up a condominium loan program. HPIA products began appearing in 2026.
What this means for you. If you are buying a condo I pull the AOAO budget, reserve study, minutes and master policy declarations early, and I ask your lender to confirm warrantability before we are deep into a contract. If you are selling one, having that package clean and ready is now a genuine competitive advantage. A lot of listings do not.
Sources: Hawaiʻi DCCA condominium insurance FAQs, January 2026; Hawaii Business.
Four things that change what a property is worth
Short-term rental rules are still unsettled
Outside resort zoning the practical minimum rental term on Oʻahu remains 30 days. The City passed a 90-day minimum in Ordinance 22-7, a federal judge enjoined enforcement in 2022, and the City tried again with CO-25-02 in 2025. It is still contested. Unrestricted short-term rental is legal in resort-zoned Waikīkī, Ko Olina and Turtle Bay, and for roughly 793 properties holding a Nonconforming Use Certificate, which renew between September 1 and October 15. If rental income is the reason you are buying, we verify it property by property with the Department of Planning and Permitting before you commit.
The transient accommodations tax went up
Hawaiʻi’s TAT rose 0.75 points to 11% on January 1, 2026, the so-called green fee funding climate resilience. It applies to any accommodation rented for under 180 consecutive days, so it reaches vacation rentals and timeshares, not just hotels. Factor it into any rental pro forma you have been shown.
Leasehold is not the same as fee simple
Leasehold means you own the building but lease the land, with a lease rent that renegotiates and a term that eventually expires. It prices well below comparable fee simple, sometimes for good reason and sometimes as a genuine opportunity. Most lenders will not finance a short remaining term. I check this on every property and tell you plainly which one you are looking at.
The empty homes tax is dead, for now
The Oʻahu Charter Commission voted the ballot measure down in July 2026, one vote short of the supermajority it needed, and Bill 46 lapsed on August 1. If you were holding off on a second home over this, that particular uncertainty is off the table for this cycle.
The wider economy
Hawaiʻi DBEDT’s September 2026 forecast puts real GDP growth at 1.3% for 2026, down from 2.5% in 2025, recovering to about 1.8% by 2028. Population is roughly flat near 1.43 million. Visitor arrivals are up slightly at 9.73 million. Construction added 1,300 jobs in the first seven months of the year, up 3.3%. Projected inflation for 2026 is 4.4%.
Read alongside the housing numbers, that is a slow-growth economy with a persistent housing shortage. Which is roughly the story of the last thirty years here, and the reason single-family land on this island has held value through a lot of national cycles.
Source: Hawaiʻi DBEDT, September 10, 2026.
Want this for your street?
Public data gets thin fast once you zoom in past the island level. I have full HiCentral MLS access and can pull real comps for your block, your building, or the three houses that sold near you this year. Ask me, it takes ten minutes and costs nothing.
Next HBR monthly report publishes in early October 2026. I update this page when it does.
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